Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks
The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment,...
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| Formato: | Libro electrónico |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund
2012.
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| Colección: | EBSCO Academic eBook Collection Complete.
IMF working paper ; WP/12/230. |
| Acceso en línea: | Conectar con la versión electrónica |
| Ver en Universidad de Navarra: | https://innopac.unav.es/record=b33435261*spi |
| Sumario: | The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. |
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| Notas: | "September 2012." At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. |
| Descripción Física: | 28 p. : gráf |
| Formato: | Forma de acceso: World Wide Web. |
| Bibliografía: | Incluye referencias bibliográficas (p. 14-16). |
| ISBN: | 9781475541274 |
