Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy
Using an estimated DSGE model for Hungary, the paper identifies the possible non-Keynesian channels through which a fiscal consolidation may manifest as expansionary. Simulations show that fiscal consolidation policies are typically contractionary. Nevertheless, taking into account some specific fea...
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| Formato: | Capítulo de libro electrónico |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Paris :
OECD Publishing
2012.
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| Colección: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers,
no.945. |
| Materias: | |
| Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull: | https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009706422006719 |
| Sumario: | Using an estimated DSGE model for Hungary, the paper identifies the possible non-Keynesian channels through which a fiscal consolidation may manifest as expansionary. Simulations show that fiscal consolidation policies are typically contractionary. Nevertheless, taking into account some specific features of the Hungarian economy, there is a possibility that expansionary effects arise. These effects may take the form of a drop in interest rate risk premium or favourable balance sheet effects through the appreciation of the currency. However, the credibility of fiscal consolidation is key in achieving positive output effects. A non-credible consolidation is unlikely to expand output, regardless of the assumptions regarding the specific features of the economy, and regardless of the composition of a consolidation package. |
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| Descripción Física: | 1 online resource (50 p. ) |
