Futures past : economic forecasting in the 20th and 21st century

Futures past economic forecasting in the 20th and 21st century

Few areas in economics are as controversial as economic forecasting. While the field has sparked great hopes for the prediction of economic trends and events throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, economic forecasts have often proved inaccurate or unreliable, thus provoking severe criticism in time...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Otros Autores: Fritsche, Ulrich, editor (editor), Köster, Roman, editor, Lenel, Laetitia, editor
Formato: Libro electrónico
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Berlin : Peter Lang Publishing 2020.
Edición:1st ed
Colección:Literatur, Kultur, Ökonomie.
Materias:
Economic forecasting > Econometric models.
Economic forecasting.
Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull:https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009803310106719
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Cover
  • Copyright information
  • Contents
  • List of Authors
  • Introduction
  • 1. A Very Short History of Economic Forecasting
  • 2. The Social Fabrication of Forecasts: Some Aspects
  • 3. This Volume
  • References
  • Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting 1
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. The Historical Record of Economic Forecasting
  • 3. Why Do Forecasters Miss Recessions
  • 4. Nowcasting Recessions
  • 5. Conclusion
  • References
  • Measuring and Managing Expectations: Consumer Confidence as an Economic Indicator, 1920s-1970s
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. A Tool for "Scientific Marketing": Interwar Consumer Research and Psychological Transfers
  • 3. Consumer Expectations and Decision-Making: George Katona and Wartime Attitude Research
  • 4. Framing the Affluent Society: Consumer Sentiment Surveys as Behavioral Economics
  • 5. Framing and Managing Expectations in the Cold War: More Transatlantic Transfers of Consumer Survey Methodology
  • 6. Conclusion
  • References
  • The Economist as Futurologist: The Making and the Public Reception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland, 1964-1975
  • 1. The Economy as a Separated Sphere
  • 2. Future Perspectives for an Economically Underexplored Country
  • 3. The Motion Borel: Between Planning and Forecasting
  • 4. The Perspektivstudien and the Swiss Economy as a Separated Sphere
  • 5. A Switzerland of 10 Million Inhabitants
  • References
  • The Janus Face of Inflation Targeting: How Governing Market Expectations of the Future Imprisons Monetary Policy in a Normalized Present
  • 1. Introduction: Monetary Policy and the Problems of 'Knowing the Future'
  • 2. The Temporalities of Modern Central Banking: Using the Future to Escape the Fetters of the Present
  • 3. What 'Futures' Does Future-Oriented Monetary Policy Govern - and How?.
  • 4. Conclusion: Why Standardizing the Future Increases Uncertainties
  • References
  • Social Interaction, Emotion, and Economic Forecasting
  • 1. Introduction
  • 1.1. The Field: Economic Forecasters in German-Speaking Countries
  • 2. Interaction and the Future
  • 2.1. Mental Time Traveling and Foretalk
  • 3. Interaction and Economic Forecasting
  • 3.1. Interaction and Econometrics
  • 3.2. Patterns of External Interaction
  • 3.3. Patterns of Internal Interaction
  • 4. Emotion and Scientific Reasoning
  • 4.1. Emotions in Economic Forecasting
  • 4.2. Emotion as Epistemic Resource
  • 5. Conclusion
  • References
  • The Dynamics of Expectations: A Sequential Perspective on Macroeconomic Forecasting 1
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Shifting the Focus from Outcomes to Processes
  • 3. Data and Material
  • 4. Are Predictions Predictable? Forecasting as a Sequence
  • 5. What Is Updating? The Informational Grounds of Forecasts Revisions
  • 6. Discussion and Conclusion
  • Appendix A: Forecasts Publication Date
  • Appendix B: Panel Overview
  • References
  • Never Change a Losing Horse?: On Adaptations in German Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. The Survey
  • 3. Empirical Results
  • 3.1. Responses to Pre-Formulated Statements
  • 3.2. Answers to Free Questions
  • 3.3. Evidence from Probability Models
  • 4. Decoupling of Academia and Macroeconomic Forecasting Camp
  • 5. Conclusion
  • References.

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